Oxford research highlights environmental and legal risks of countries' overreliance on carbon dioxide removal

New research from the University of Oxford warns that many countries are placing undue reliance on large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to meet climate targets - despite major uncertainties around its feasibility. The study was conducted by researchers from the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme, a joint initiative between the Faculty of Law and the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.

“Over-reliance on CDR is a reckless gamble,” says Dr Rupert Stuart-Smith, Senior Research Fellow in Climate Science and the Law. “We find that states are overwhelmingly intransparent and ambiguous about how they plan to meet their climate targets.”

The study assessed climate strategies across 71 states, analysing emissions targets, carbon removal plans, and legal frameworks, and cross-referenced findings with leading climate data sources to highlight inconsistencies and risks in national net-zero pathways. Many rely heavily on both conventional and novel CDR technologies – including removals carried out in other countries – to offset emissions, rather than cutting them directly. The risks are especially acute when countries depend on international carbon trading or removals outside their borders, often without clearly quantifying this reliance.

Previous research by the authors found that states that over-rely on CDR could find themselves out of alignment with international law. “Legal analysis, in conjunction with the risks associated with CDR-dependent targets assessed here could clarify states’ mitigation obligations under international law and facilitate progression past a risk-blind and indiscriminate use of scientific pathways in assessing states’ targets,” says co-author Dr Thom Wetzer, Associate Professor of Law and Finance and Director of the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme. 

The authors call for greater scrutiny of national climate plans and stronger international standards to ensure transparency and accountability in the use of CDR.